The recent outburst of French farmers, who, along the border with Spain, went to extreme lengths by destroying and setting fire to entire shipments of Spanish wine and agricultural products, signals a growing unease among industry stakeholders. It's no coincidence that this incident follows a catastrophic grape-harvesting season in France, where drought and soaring production costs dealt a severe blow to the viticulture sector. The influx of low-cost Spanish produce was perceived as a threat, exacerbating the challenges an already struggling sector faces.
However, the plight of French winemakers isn't confined to France alone. It resonates strongly with the issues experienced by our own farmers. These are complex concerns, intertwined with problems such as unfair competition among European countries, shifts in consumer habits, and the climate crisis. The French protest has garnered attention not just for its dramatic actions but because, in a way, it speaks about and to us.
For instance, consider the issue of unfair competition brought about by importing foreign agricultural products. We often hear about this in our own context, especially regarding Canadian wheat, which is preferred over Italian for its high protein content and lower price. Similarly, in the olive sector, Spanish and Tunisian competition has been a major factor in driving down market prices and enabling large bottlers to maintain consumer prices below cost, which penalizes small Italian olive growers. If the 2023 olive campaign sees higher prices for producers than last year, it's primarily due to the challenges faced by the Spanish olive sector, which, due to a drastic drop in production, will supply less to our market.
Turning specifically to the viticulture sector, there's a significant issue that many are overlooking: the gradual shift in consumer habits. This is driven by a preference for healthier food and beverages, consequently reducing opportunities for alcohol consumption, which is increasingly viewed as detrimental (hence proposals for labeling indicating potential carcinogenicity). Despite Italy's traditional reputation as a nation of avid wine consumers, regular drinkers have reduced by 22% over 15 years (Italian Wine Union, 2023). The most significant decline is among younger demographics, where the contraction is around 40%. These figures force companies to seek out new markets. However, internationalization isn't for everyone. It demands the creation of high-value-added products, capable of obtaining quality certifications, being featured in guides, participating in major trade events, and winning prestigious competitions. These activities entail very high costs, causing many to either abandon their land or invest in alternative crops. Furthermore, the decline in alcohol consumption characterizes even countries that were once deemed very promising, such as the UK or the US, where younger generations seem increasingly uninterested in products like wine, favoring so-called hard seltzers - canned, sparkling, and lightly alcoholic beverages. Repositioning in this context is no easy feat, and those at the beginning of the supply chain are the first to be affected.
Finally, the climate crisis. What Sicily has experienced in recent years, between floods, droughts, and temperatures nearing 50 degrees, is likely the most dramatic confirmation of what was anticipated long ago: we are one of the Italian regions most affected by climate change. A 2019 report by the European Environment Agency lays out very concerning predictions for the Italian agricultural sector. It states that Italy is the European country most impacted by rising temperatures, which will lead to a true agricultural transformation. Two-thirds of European agricultural losses will be concentrated in our country. Our agricultural land will face long periods of drought and severe water shortages, as well as increasingly scorching seasons interspersed with unpredictable floods. Olive cultivation will gravitate towards more suitable locations, likely in France and the Iberian Peninsula, while grape growing will become even more complex, inevitably impacting the quality of our wine. At this rate, our lands, hyper-stressed due to water scarcity and lack of precipitation, will lose about 80% of their value within 50-80 years at most.
These predictions initially indicated 2030 as the timeframe for when certain phenomena would occur, but it seems that the problems are already here, arriving about 7-8 years earlier. Many of these forecasts are already reality. Much of Sicilian territory is at high risk of desertification, and the Sicilian grape harvest of 2023 was disastrous, mainly due to downy mildew and the extremely high temperatures recorded in the summer months, resulting in production losses exceeding 351 million euros. Despite relief measures, which are hoped for, concerns for the future of our agriculture are palpable.
Agricultural entrepreneurs cannot operate on the hope that Mother Nature will be kind, that consumers will return to their previous consumption habits, or that our neighbors' products won't enter our country. The free movement of goods is an achievement of the European Union, but in a scenario of directly competing sectors among neighboring countries, it would be better regulated. Spain's intensive agricultural system, while fitting perfectly into a free market logic, raises environmental and economic questions that neighboring countries cannot ignore. At a European level, can we afford, for example, for one-fifth of Spanish territory to be at risk of desertification due to its agricultural practices? Can we accept that products grown with significant negative environmental externalities arrive in our country at rock-bottom prices, forcing our farmers to adopt the same unsustainable farming methods?
The issue isn't the Spanish goods entering Italian or French territory, but the lack of a shared and agreed-upon action plan with industry stakeholders, in a potentially explosive context. Agriculture is a key sector for the Sicilian economy, which now more than ever, needs serious planning and a comprehensive vision to help our system tackle the enormous challenges arising, as loudly emphasized by our French neighbors.